TY - JOUR
T1 - Effect of daily human movement on some characteristics of dengue dynamics
AU - Tocto-Erazo, Mayra R.
AU - Olmos-Liceaga, Daniel
AU - Montoya-Laos, José A.
N1 - Publisher Copyright:
© 2021 Elsevier Inc.
PY - 2021/2/1
Y1 - 2021/2/1
N2 - Human movement is a key factor in infectious diseases spread such as dengue. Here, we explore a mathematical modeling approach based on a system of ordinary differential equations to study the effect of human movement on characteristics of dengue dynamics such as the existence of endemic equilibria, and the start, duration, and amplitude of the outbreak. The model considers that every day is divided into two periods: high-activity and low-activity. Periodic human movement between patches occurs in discrete times. Based on numerical simulations, we show unexpected scenarios such as the disease extinction in regions where the local basic reproductive number is greater than 1. In the same way, we obtain scenarios where outbreaks appear despite the fact that the local basic reproductive numbers in these regions are less than 1 and the outbreak size depends on the length of high-activity and low-activity periods.
AB - Human movement is a key factor in infectious diseases spread such as dengue. Here, we explore a mathematical modeling approach based on a system of ordinary differential equations to study the effect of human movement on characteristics of dengue dynamics such as the existence of endemic equilibria, and the start, duration, and amplitude of the outbreak. The model considers that every day is divided into two periods: high-activity and low-activity. Periodic human movement between patches occurs in discrete times. Based on numerical simulations, we show unexpected scenarios such as the disease extinction in regions where the local basic reproductive number is greater than 1. In the same way, we obtain scenarios where outbreaks appear despite the fact that the local basic reproductive numbers in these regions are less than 1 and the outbreak size depends on the length of high-activity and low-activity periods.
KW - Dengue
KW - Human movement
KW - Mathematical model
KW - Outbreak
KW - Patches
UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=85099637095&partnerID=8YFLogxK
U2 - 10.1016/j.mbs.2020.108531
DO - 10.1016/j.mbs.2020.108531
M3 - Artículo
C2 - 33460675
AN - SCOPUS:85099637095
SN - 0025-5564
VL - 332
JO - Mathematical Biosciences
JF - Mathematical Biosciences
M1 - 108531
ER -