Lockdown, relaxation, and acme period in COVID-19: A study of disease dynamics in Hermosillo, Sonora, Mexico: A study of disease dynamics in Hermosillo, Sonora, Mexico

Mayra R. Tocto-Erazo, Jorge A. Espíndola-Zepeda, José A. Montoya-Laos, Manuel A. Acuña-Zegarra, Daniel Olmos-Liceaga, Pablo A. Reyes-Castro, Gudelia FigueroaPreciado

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4 Scopus citations

Abstract

Lockdown and social distancing measures have been implemented for many countries to mitigate the impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic and prevent overwhelming of health services. However, success on this strategy depends not only on the timing of its implementation, but also on the relaxation measures adopted within each community. We developed a mathematical model to evaluate the impacts of the lockdown implemented in Hermosillo, Mexico. We compared this intervention with some hypothetical ones, varying the starting date and also the population proportion that is released, breaking the confinement. A Monte Carlo study was performed by considering three scenarios to define our baseline dynamics. Results showed that a hypothetical delay of two weeks, on the lockdown measures, would result in an early acme around May 9 for hospitalization prevalence and an increase on cumulative deaths, 42 times higher by May 31, when compared to baseline. On the other hand, results concerning relaxation dynamics showed that the acme levels depend on the proportion of people who gets back to daily activities as well as the individual behavior with respect to prevention measures. Analysis regarding different relaxing mitigation measures were provided to the Sonoran Health Ministry, as requested. It is important to stress that, according to information provided by health authorities, the acme occurring time was closed to the one given by our model. Hence, we considered that our model resulted useful for the decision-making assessment, and that an extension of it can be used for the study of a potential second wave.
Original languageEnglish
Article numbere0242957
JournalPLoS ONE
Volume15
Issue number12 December
DOIs
StatePublished - 1 Dec 2020

Bibliographical note

Funding Information:
This work was supported by Consejo Nacional de Ciencia y Tecnología, Project 313269 (GFP). This funding source had no role in the definition of the study design, interpretation or publication of the results.

Publisher Copyright:
© 2020 Tocto-Erazo et al. This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited.

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