Optimización del pago del IVA a través de un modelo de riesgo probabilístico para la planeación financiera

The Small and Medium Sized Enterprises (SMEs) have an important fiscal responsibility, so it is of special interest to reach an appropriate management of the cash flow, in order to optimize the payment of the Value Added Tax. In this work, a cost-risk analysis model is proposed to determine the impact of a fiscal planning strategy that considers the use of a credit line. The goal is to make a decision that achieves an optimal combination between costs and expected benefits, considering also the risk associated with the occurrence of lack of liquidity. This proposal is focused on the minimization of what is called the total impact function, defined as the sum of the cost and risk functions. The methodological proposal is illustrated with real data from a hardware wholesale company in Hermosillo, Sonora, Mexico. A simulation study was carried out to show the applicability of this proposal.