TY - JOUR
T1 - A Bayesian spatiotemporal approach to modelling arboviral diseases in Mexico
AU - Bukhari, Moeen Hamid
AU - Shad, Muhammad Yousaf
AU - Nguyen, Uyen Sa D.T.
AU - Treviño, C. Jesús A.
AU - Jung, Woojin
AU - Bajwa, Waheed U.
AU - Gallego-Hernández, Ana Lucía
AU - Robinson, Renee
AU - Corral-Frías, Nadia Sarai
AU - Hamer, Gabriel L.
AU - Wang, Penghua
AU - Annan, Esther
AU - Ra, Chaelin K.
AU - Keellings, David
AU - Haque, Ubydul
N1 - Publisher Copyright:
© The Author(s) 2023.
PY - 2023/12/1
Y1 - 2023/12/1
N2 - Background: The objective of this study was to evaluate the spatial and temporal patterns of disease prevalence clusters of dengue (DENV), chikungunya (CHIKV) and Zika (ZIKV) virus and how socio-economic and climatic variables simultaneously influence the risk and rate of occurrence of infection in Mexico. Methods: To determine the spatiotemporal clustering and the effect of climatic and socio-economic covariates on the rate of occurrence of disease and risk in Mexico, we applied correlation methods, seasonal and trend decomposition using locally estimated scatterplot smoothing, hotspot analysis and conditional autoregressive Bayesian models. Results: We found cases of the disease are decreasing and a significant association between DENV, CHIKV and ZIKV cases and climatic and socio-economic variables. An increment of cases was identified in the northeast- ern, central west and southeastern regions of Mexico. Climatic and socio-economic covariates were significantly associated with the rate of occurrence and risk of the three arboviral disease cases. Conclusion: The association of climatic and socio-economic factors is predominant in the northeastern, central west and southeastern regions of Mexico. DENV, CHIKV and ZIKV cases showed an increased risk in several states in these regions and need urgent attention to allocate public health resources to the most vulnerable regions in Mexico.
AB - Background: The objective of this study was to evaluate the spatial and temporal patterns of disease prevalence clusters of dengue (DENV), chikungunya (CHIKV) and Zika (ZIKV) virus and how socio-economic and climatic variables simultaneously influence the risk and rate of occurrence of infection in Mexico. Methods: To determine the spatiotemporal clustering and the effect of climatic and socio-economic covariates on the rate of occurrence of disease and risk in Mexico, we applied correlation methods, seasonal and trend decomposition using locally estimated scatterplot smoothing, hotspot analysis and conditional autoregressive Bayesian models. Results: We found cases of the disease are decreasing and a significant association between DENV, CHIKV and ZIKV cases and climatic and socio-economic variables. An increment of cases was identified in the northeast- ern, central west and southeastern regions of Mexico. Climatic and socio-economic covariates were significantly associated with the rate of occurrence and risk of the three arboviral disease cases. Conclusion: The association of climatic and socio-economic factors is predominant in the northeastern, central west and southeastern regions of Mexico. DENV, CHIKV and ZIKV cases showed an increased risk in several states in these regions and need urgent attention to allocate public health resources to the most vulnerable regions in Mexico.
KW - Bayesian model
KW - CARBayesST
KW - Zika
KW - chikungunya
KW - dengue
KW - spatiotemporal
UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=85178665427&partnerID=8YFLogxK
U2 - 10.1093/trstmh/trad064
DO - 10.1093/trstmh/trad064
M3 - Artículo
C2 - 37681342
AN - SCOPUS:85178665427
SN - 0035-9203
VL - 117
SP - 867
EP - 874
JO - Transactions of the Royal Society of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene
JF - Transactions of the Royal Society of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene
IS - 12
ER -